General Motors wants to be the plug-in leader with the Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid with 40 miles of electric range and 500 miles per gasoline fill-up range. Chevrolet will deliver over 10,000 in 2011. GM has a complete Voltec Propulsion System roadmap that envisions added offerings of pure battery-electric, E85, and diesel. The second plug-in offering from GM is likely to be a Chevrolet Crossover SUV. Look for a range versus cost battle with Toyota, as the Volt achieves more electric range by adding to vehicle cost with a 16kWh battery.
Nissan will be the first automaker to put over 10,000 pure
battery-electric cars on U.S. highways. 20,000 have made deposits for
Nissan Leaf and several cities are in major partnerships. The LEAF can be purchased starting at $32,780 or $349 per month. The Nissan LEAF is battery-electric with a 100-mile range per charge. LEAF Test drive. This 5-door, 5-seat, hatchback has the right size and range for many who drive under 100 miles daily, or for households with more than one car.
Ford will be selling at least two electric cars by the end of 2011 and five models by the end of 2012. The best seller will be the
Ford Focus Electric, a battery-electric that we expect to aggressively compete with the Nissan Leaf. Ford will be taking orders for a 2012
C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrid, an exciting Crossover SUV that seats 5. In the future, the Ford Focus available any way the customer wants it: battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, or fuel-efficient sedan. Ford is already selling the
Transit Connect Electric compact van.
Tesla is the first to sell 1,000 electric cars for the U.S. highways. Tesla owners are the first to put 10 million electric miles on the road. Like its
Roadster, the company is going zero to sixty in less than four seconds. Tesla is also developing a roomy
Model S hatchback that starts at $57,400, about half the price of the Roadster. The Roadster is battery-electric with a 240-mile range; the Model S will have remarkable electric range options of 130 to 300 miles per charge. Tesla is working with shareholder Toyota to bring back the
Toyota RAV4 EV, an electric SUV. Tesla is working with shareholder Daimler to put Smart EDs on U.S. streets this year. In the future, the
Tesla Model X will be a Crossover SUV for those that want more premium styling and interiors than alternatives from Chevrolet, Ford, and others.
Fisker Karma is a luxury sports plug-in hybrid with prices starting around $90,000. With 20kWh of lithium batteries, you could go 50 miles before the 2L turbo engine is engaged. The Karma invites you to accelerate, using two electric motors that deliver 403 horsepower, so your mileage may vary. In theory it’s a 4-seater; good luck fitting someone in the back seat. The Karma is about sex appeal, performance, and luxury. A more affordable family sedan is planned for 2012.
Toyota, world-leading seller of hybrids, will offer both plug-in hybrids and pure battery electric cars. The Prius Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) looks like another Prius until you spot the J1772 plug for smart charging. Six hundred PHV are in fleet trails from cities to car sharing services. Next year, you can order the Prius PHV. Toyota will initially control costs by only using a 5kWh battery for a 14-mile electric range. In 2012, Toyota is likely to also offer the
RAV4 EV SUV and a pure battery-electric FT-EV small city car.
Honda is preparing the
Honda Fit EV and a plug-in hybrid for sale in the U.S. in 2012. The Fit EV is in demonstration program in fleets such as Google and Stanford University. We speculate that the new EV will use Blue Energy lithium-ion batteries and will price below $29,900.
Mitsubishi is currently the
electric car market leader in Japan with the iMiEV.
In 2012, the U.S. version of the
Mitsubishi I will price at less than $29,900. This fun-to-drive 5 door, 4 seat hatchback, will have a wheel base 5 inches wider for the U.S. market, but the micro-compact will still be able to get those precious city parking spaces that no other car can take except the Smart. The more powerful U.S. version will have an electric range of 50 to 80 miles with a 16kWh lithium battery.
Daimler is bringing the Smart Fortwo ED to the United States. 250 Smart Fortwo ED will be put into U.S. test this year using Tesla battery packs, but smart is currently targeting the 2013 model year for the first commercial electric car. It will start taking consumer and fleet orders in 2012. Daimler also owns 5 percent of Tesla. Mercedes hybrids. BMW will accelerate electric plans in a couple of years. Mercedes is putting into fleet tests two 5-seat hatchback electric cars – the A-Class E-CELL battery-electric car with 120-mile range and the B-Class F-CELL, which adds a hydrogen fuel cell to double the range.
Think has been selling its smaller battery-electric City car in Europe for years. With new capital from EnerDel, Valmet, and Kleiner Perkins, Think hopes to have its financial struggles in the rear view mirror and be on U.S. roads within a year.
U.S. Electric Car Forecast
Accenture forecasts 1.5 million electric vehicles in the United States by 2015. Over 10 million electric vehicles are possible by 2020, especially if oil prices continue to rise as battery prices fall. Single electric utilities have scenarios for charging over one million electric vehicles in their own service area by 2020. With renewable energy investment required of utilities in 30 states, these utilities are most interested in night time charging of electric vehicles with wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Utilities are also implementing smart grids and incentives for off-peak charging.
By 2011 year-end, competition will be intense for electric car leadership. The above Top 10 describe our best guess about the market share leaders for delivered plug-in vehicles on the United States roads in 2011. Battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles with range extended by engines or fuel cells were all considered.
Over 100 competitors will be fighting for U.S. share by the end of 2012. Some may be struggle to get significant share due to the time and cost of safety and other regulatory approvals, delays in funding, unpleasant surprises from a battery, drive system, or component supplier. It’s a tough business. Even Tesla had to add 700 pounds and two years to get the first Roadsters in customers’ hands.
Asia Prepares for the U.S. Market
For three years, we have read about China’s plans to bring electric cars to the U.S. Although China’s U.S. ambitions have slipped badly, its automakers cannot be ignored. China has over 100 million light electric vehicles, e-bikes and e-scooters in daily use. It’s new 5-year plan calls for 100 million electric charging stations in China by 2020. BYD, with gold-plated investors such as Warren Buffett, has only put a few hundred electric vehicles on the road in China and continues to delay introduction to the United States. CODA’s $45,000 sedan continues to seek DOE loans and more investors and has delayed sales until Fall 2011, or later. Volvo, now owned by China’s Geely has the new C30 Drive E Electric. I was impressed with my test drive, but the Volvo electric car will be selling only in Europe in the short-term. SAIC, Chery, and hundreds of players are also preparing EVs for Chin
India might bring us a Maharinda Reva or Nano EV that under prices everyone, but not this year which is the basis for this Top 10 Report.
European Innovation
By 2020, Europe with higher fuel prices and fewer oil subsidies, is forecasted to have more electric cars by 2020 than the U.S. Better Place may deliver 100,000 of the Renault Fluence with its switchable battery to Israel, Denmark, and other countries. Volkswagen may teach everyone how to extend range by making vehicles light. The concept Up Light weighs just over 1,500 pounds, but it’s only a concept. I loved test-driving the Volkswagen Golf Blue E-Motion, but don’t plan on buying it in the U.S. before 2014. You will likely be able to buy the Audi E-Tron sooner. BMW’s first U.S. electric car commercial offering, the Megacity Vehicle, may be a hit in 2013. For fun in the city in 2013, the Fiat 500 EV may be what you want. In other words, there is a lot of European innovation that did not make this Top 10 List, which focuses on the U.S. market for the next 12 months.
Please bookmark this Top 10 List and check back as we update. Exciting new electric cars are being driven on the U.S. streets and freeways. Nissan is an early mover with battery-electric cars and General Motors with plug-in hybrids. Competition will start to heat-up with offerings from Ford, Toyota, Honda, and dozens of Asian, European and American innovators. The winner will be the customer.
Source :
cleanfleetreport.com
